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A fractional land use change model for ecological applications

By mapping land use under projections of socio-economic change, ecological changes can be predicted to inform conservation decision-making. We present a land use model that enables the fine-scale mapping of land use change under future scenarios. Its predictions can be used as input to virtually all existing spatially-explicit ecological models.

Modelling temperature-driven changes in species associations across freshwater communities

Due to global climate change–induced shifts in species distributions, estimating changes in community composition through the use of Species Distribution Models has become a key management tool. Being able to determine how species associations change along environmental gradients is likely to be pivotal in exploring the magnitude of future changes in species’ distributions.

Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria

Individual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions to calibrate a complex malaria transmission simulator.

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa: A scoping review of preparedness, impact and response

The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic.

The prevalence of tuberculosis and malaria in minority indigenous populations of South- East Asia and the Western Pacific Region: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Infectious diseases have been shown to disproportionately affect indigenous populations. Tuberculosis (TB) and malaria continue to impose a significant burden on humanity and are among the infectious diseases targeted within the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

A Maximum Entropy Model of the Distribution of Dengue Serotype in Mexico

Pathogen strain diversity is an important driver of the trajectory of epidemics. The role of bioclimatic factors on the spatial distribution of dengue virus serotypes has, however, not been previously studied. Hence, we developed municipality-scale environmental suitability maps for the four dengue virus serotypes using maximum entropy modeling.

Spatio-temporal mapping of stunting and wasting in Nigerian children: A bivariate mixture modeling

Studies have shown that stunting and wasting indicators are strongly correlated among children, with the potential of concurrently affecting their physical and cognitive development. However, the identification of subpopulations of children with varying risks of stunting and wasting could be valuable for targeted intervention.

Trends in treatment-seeking for fever in children under five years old in 151 countries from 1990 to 2020

Access to medical treatment for fever is essential to prevent morbidity and mortality in individuals and to prevent transmission of communicable febrile illness in communities. Quantification of the rates at which treatment is accessed is critical for health system planning and a prerequisite for disease burden estimates.