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Replicating hypergraph disease dynamics with lower-order interactions

Disease spreading models such as the ubiquitous SIS compartmental model and its numerous variants are widely used to understand and predict the behavior of a given epidemic or information diffusion process. A common approach to imbue more realism to the spreading process is to constrain simulations to a network structure, where connected nodes update their disease state based on pairwise interactions along the edges of their local neighborhood. 

Modelling Micro-Elimination: Third-Trimester Tenofovir Prophylaxis for Perinatal Transmission of Hepatitis B in the Remote Dolpa District of Nepal

Hepatitis B (HBV) prevalence is very high in pregnant women in the Dolpa district of Nepal, a region characterised by a remote geographic landscape and low vaccination coverage. Using mathematical modelling, we evaluated the impact of third-trimester tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) prophylaxis on HBV burden and estimated the time required to achieve HBV elimination in Dolpa. 

Mapping tuberculosis prevalence in Africa using a Bayesian geospatial analysis

Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of death from infectious diseases. Africa is the second most-affected region, accounting for a quarter of the global TB burden, but there is limited evidence whether there is subnational variation of TB prevalence across the continent. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate sub-national and local TB prevalence across Africa.

Mapping the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infections in the Western Pacific Region: a spatial modelling study

Soil-Transmitted Helminth (STH) infections are a significant health issue in the Western Pacific Region (WPR). This study aims to produce high-resolution spatial prediction STH prevalence maps for the WPR.

Local progress towards achieving the End TB targets in Ethiopia: A geospatial analysis

Country-level estimates can mask local geographic variations in progress toward achieving World Health Organization's End TB targets. This study aimed to identify spatial variations in progress toward achieving the TB incidence reduction target at a district level in Ethiopia.

Quantifying undetected tuberculosis in Ethiopia using a novel geospatial modelling approach

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading infectious cause of death globally, with approximately three million cases remaining undetected, thereby contributing to community transmission. Understanding the spatial distribution of undetected TB in high-burden settings is critical for designing and implementing geographically targeted interventions for early detection and control.

Comparison of new computational methods for spatial modelling of malaria

Geostatistical analysis of health data is increasingly used to model spatial variation in malaria prevalence, burden, and other metrics. Traditional inference methods for geostatistical modelling are notoriously computationally intensive, motivating the development of newer, approximate methods for geostatistical analysis or, more broadly, computational modelling of spatial processes.

Opinion: Modelling for the health of our next generation

Nearly 170 years ago a British doctor applied geospatial mapping to identify the source of a cholera outbreak in central London. Using a street map to plot the location of the homes of the sick, Dr John Snow was able to pinpoint a ‘ground zero’ for the outbreak – a contaminated water pump.

Survivors of drug-resistant TB face long-term health problems: study

New research highlights the long-term physical health problems faced by people who survive drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) .

Nationwide spatial dynamics of taeniasis in Thailand: declining prevalence but shifting focus and One Health risk factors across 2008–2014

The prevalence of taeniasis in Thailand has decreased over the past six decades. However, it remains a public health concern, particularly in focal areas, especially along the border regions where migration between Thailand and neighboring endemic countries is frequent. Spatial distribution analysis provides a useful method for identifying high-risk areas and implementing targeted integrated control measures. This study aimed to examine the spatial patterns of taeniasis in 2008 and 2014, along with their associated One Health risk factors at the sub-district level.