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Measuring how a disease outbreak could spread in WA

Nick Golding BSc DPhil Honorary Research Fellow Nick.Golding@thekids.org.au Honorary Research Fellow Professor Nick Golding is the UWA Chair in

Sophisticated new modelling suggests keeping mask mandate could prevent 147,000 COVID-19 cases

WA’s current Omicron COVID-19 outbreak could jump by 147,000 cases if mask mandates are abandoned before the Easter long weekend, according to sophisticated new modelling.

New study identifies African ‘hotspot’ for highly infectious diseases

A regional corner of Africa is a hotspot for cases of HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, prompting researchers to call for targeted health support rather than a national response.

Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of selected zoonotic viral hemorrhagic fevers in Tanzania

To determine the seroprevalence of selected zoonotic viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) and their associated risk factors in Tanzania.

Mapping the endemicity and seasonality of clinical malaria for intervention targeting in Haiti using routine case data

Towards the goal of malaria elimination on Hispaniola, the National Malaria Control Program of Haiti and its international partner organisations are conducting a campaign of interventions targeted to high-risk communities prioritised through evidence-based planning. Here we present a key piece of this planning: an up-to-date, fine-scale endemicity map and seasonality profile for Haiti informed by monthly case counts.

Space–time clustering characteristics of malaria in bhutan at the end stages of elimination

Malaria in Bhutan has fallen significantly over the last decade. As Bhutan attempts to eliminate malaria in 2022, this study aimed to characterize the space-time clustering of malaria from 2010 to 2019. Malaria data were obtained from the Bhutan Vector-Borne Disease Control Program data repository.

Spatial clustering of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Hunan province, China: an ecological study

This study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) in Hunan province, China. An ecological study was conducted using DR-TB data collected from the Tuberculosis Control Institute of Hunan Province between 2012 and 2018.

Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings

Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios.

DETECT Schools Study Protocol: A Prospective Observational Cohort Surveillance Study Investigating the Impact of COVID-19 in Western Australian Schools

Amidst the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, understanding the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is key to providing peace of mind for the community and informing policy-making decisions. While available data suggest that school-aged children are not significant spreaders of SARS-CoV-2, the possibility of transmission in schools remains an ongoing concern, especially among an aging teaching workforce. Even in low-prevalence settings, communities must balance the potential risk of transmission with the need for students' ongoing education.